Vaccine-induced correlate of protection against fatal COVID-19 in older and frail adults during waves of neutralization-resistant variants of concern: an observational study.

Background: To inform future preventive measures including repeated vaccinations, we have searched for a clinically useful immune correlate of protection against fatal COVID-19 among nursing homes residents. Methods: We performed repeated capillary blood sampling with analysis of S-binding IgG in an open cohort of nursing home residents in Sweden. We analyzed immunological and registry data from 16 September 2021 to 31 August 2022 with follow-up of deaths to 30 September 2022. The study period included implementation of the 3rd and 4th mRNA monovalent vaccine doses and Omicron virus waves. Findings: A total of 3012 nursing home residents with median age 86 were enrolled. The 3rd mRNA dose elicited a 99-fold relative increase of S-binding IgG in blood and corresponding increase of neutralizing antibodies. The 4th mRNA vaccine dose boosted levels 3.8-fold. Half-life of S-binding IgG was 72 days. A total 528 residents acquired their first SARS-CoV-2 infection after the 3rd or the 4th vaccine dose and the associated 30-day mortality was 9.1%. We found no indication that levels of vaccine-induced antibodies protected against infection with Omicron VOCs. In contrast, the risk of death was inversely correlated to levels of S-directed IgG below the 20th percentile. The death risk plateaued at population average above the lower 35th percentile of S-binding IgG. Interpretation: In the absence of neutralizing antibodies that protect from infection, quantification of S-binding IgG post vaccination may be useful to identify the most vulnerable for fatal COVID-19 among the oldest and frailest. This information is of importance for future strategies to protect vulnerable populations against neutralization resistant variants of concern. Funding: Swedish Research Council, SciLifeLab via Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, VINNOVA. Swedish Healthcare Regions, and Erling Persson Foundation.

At-home sampling to meet geographical challenges for serological assessment of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in a rural region of northern Sweden, March to May 2021: a retrospective cohort study.

BackgroundThe current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted a need for easy and safe blood sampling in combination with accurate serological methodology. Venipuncture for testing is usually performed by trained staff at healthcare centres. Long travel distances to healthcare centres in rural regions may introduce a bias of testing towards relatively large communities with closer access. Rural regions are therefore often not represented in population-based data.AimThe aim of this retrospective cohort study was to develop and implement a strategy for at-home testing in a rural region of Sweden during spring 2021, and to evaluate its role to provide equal health care for its inhabitants.MethodsWe developed a sensitive method to measure antibodies to the S-protein of SARS-CoV-2 and optimised this assay for clinical use together with a strategy of at-home capillary blood sampling.ResultsWe demonstrated that our ELISA gave comparable results after analysis of capillary blood or serum from SARS-CoV-2-experienced individuals. We demonstrated stability of the assay under conditions that reflected temperature and humidity during winter or summer. By assessment of capillary blood samples from 4,122 individuals, we could show both feasibility of the strategy and that implementation shifted the geographical spread of testing in favour of rural areas.ConclusionImplementation of at-home sampling enabled citizens living in remote rural areas access to centralised and sensitive laboratory antibody tests. The strategy for testing used here could therefore enable disease control authorities to get rapid access to information concerning immunity to infectious diseases, even across vast geographical distance.

Probabilistic classification of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses improves seroprevalence estimates.

Objectives: Population-level measures of seropositivity are critical for understanding the epidemiology of an emerging pathogen, yet most antibody tests apply a strict cutoff for seropositivity that is not learnt in a data-driven manner, leading to uncertainty when classifying low-titer responses. To improve upon this, we evaluated cutoff-independent methods for their ability to assign likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity to individual samples. Methods: Using robust ELISAs based on SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) and the receptor-binding domain (RBD), we profiled antibody responses in a group of SARS-CoV-2 PCR+ individuals (n = 138). Using these data, we trained probabilistic learners to assign likelihood of seropositivity to test samples of unknown serostatus (n = 5100), identifying a support vector machines-linear discriminant analysis learner (SVM-LDA) suited for this purpose. Results: In the training data from confirmed ancestral SARS-CoV-2 infections, 99% of participants had detectable anti-S and -RBD IgG in the circulation, with titers differing > 1000-fold between persons. In data of otherwise healthy individuals, 7.2% (n = 367) of samples were of uncertain serostatus, with values in the range of 3-6SD from the mean of pre-pandemic negative controls (n = 595). In contrast, SVM-LDA classified 6.4% (n = 328) of test samples as having a high likelihood (> 99% chance) of past infection, 4.5% (n = 230) to have a 50-99% likelihood, and 4.0% (n = 203) to have a 10-49% likelihood. As different probabilistic approaches were more consistent with each other than conventional SD-based methods, such tools allow for more statistically-sound seropositivity estimates in large cohorts. Conclusion: Probabilistic antibody testing frameworks can improve seropositivity estimates in populations with large titer variability.